21/11/2011

Any chance of a 'Durban Deal'?
Parliament's expectations for the United Nations' Climate Change Conference COP 17 in Durban, South Africa

By Karl-Heinz Florenz MEP, Vice-Chairman of Parliament's delegation to Durban

Last week, the European Parliament (EP) gave a strong signal on climate change and adopted a resolution with a very high majority (532 for, 76 against and 43 abstentions) on the United Nations' Climate Change Conference COP17 which will be held in Durban, South Africa, from 28 November to 9 December.

As co-sponsor of the resolution and Vice-Chairman of the EP's delegation to Durban, I am pleased that the EPP Group was able to shape the resolution, not only by outlining the general mandate of the EU and expectations for the conference, but also by including important addi-tional steps which focus on a truly comprehensive strategy on climate protection after 2012, when the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol expires.

What is Durban all about?

What parties ideally hope to achieve is a package of agreements nicknamed the 'Durban Deal'. This 'deal' would be two-fold as it would put the 'Cancun Agreements' (on the adaptation and establishment of a technology mechanism as well as of a Green Climate Fund, adopted in Cancun in 2010) into operation, while also cracking the 'hard nuts' by addressing questions still left open in Cancun.

The most pressing question has to be the one on a global reduction target for 2050 (or the time after 2012), on how to close the 'Gigaton gap', i.e. the gap between the emission re-duction pledges currently put forward by all parties and the reductions necessary in order to keep global warming below 2°C, the level which science accepts as 'still manageable'. Furthermore, both the legal form of the new agreement, as well as the issue of climate fi-nancing must be clarified at the conference in Durban.

Global emissions reduction target post-2012

The key question with regard to a post-2012 target is 'Quid pro quo' - who does what and who does what first? For the time being, we negotiate in two tracks, first with those who have already committed themselves to reductions under the Kyoto Protocol and second with other major emitters, the so-called LCA-track (Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention), with countries such as China, India and Brazil. Whether or not a second commitment under Kyoto by those who have already made commitments is a prerequisite for other emitters to follow and commit to anything under 'LCA' has already been subject to intense debate; this also might prove to be a decisive point. However, it must be taken into account that a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol alone would not suf-fice in assuring the reduction needed to keep the increase of temperature below 2°C. The remaining parties of the Kyoto Protocol only account for a mere 16% of global emis-sions. Therefore, additional reductions are needed, and new sectors must be included, for example aviation and marine emissions (which are currently excluded from the Kyoto Protocol).

With that in mind, the EU is actively engaged in getting other major emitters 'on board', using a new EU commitment under Kyoto as a bonus, providing a good example of an ar-ray of rules and methods with a high environmental integrity which one can build on (and improve), while making clear that this commitment cannot stand alone. The European Parliament aims to foster bilateral and multilateral cooperation in order to integrate a sec-ond commitment period into the overarching architecture of a new and holistic agreement for all major emitters, as defined in a clear road-map with a time line. This commitment has been endorsed by the EU Environmental Council.

In more detail: Legal form of new agreement

The EU has clearly stated that any new agreement would need to be binding according to international law. General expectations as regards the legal form consist of a clear word-ing, with clearly defined commitments and monitored implementation. It is very impor-tant that all commitments, no matter whether they are high or low, have a similar form, i.e. are of the same legally binding status.

In more detail: Financing

So far, it has been agreed that developed countries, as a group, provide $30bn in so-called 'fast-start finance' from 2010 to 2012. Furthermore, it has been decided that there should be a joint goal for the world to mobilise $100bn per year by 2020, from a wide variety of sources. The EU has committed itself to providing €7.2bn ($10bn) of 'fast-start finance', but the question of whether this money (which has, as the Economic Council of Novem-ber pointed out, already been made available) actually is new and additional is not en-tirely clear. Other open questions include who pays what share of the $100bn, as well as the underlying question of what conditions will be applied to how this money is used.

EP assessment of EU's strategy

While it has been universally accepted that Durban, just like the last COPs, will most certainly not bring about a definite new agreement but will only be one step towards a post-2012 climate agreement, the strategy for the negotiations and the general expectations as regards the outcome are judged differently by the EP, the Commission and the Council. The Commission, as well as most Member States, still see a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol and the commitment to provide funding to help developing countries in their fight against climate change as 'aces' in the game. The European Parliament, however, is sceptical as to whether these playing cards will be the key. Parliamentarians therefore advise a different approach to the challenge.

The EU's task: Climate Diplomacy

According to the EP's resolution, one of the main tasks of the European Parliament's delegation to Durban will be finding new ways of convincing others to join the EU's efforts to combat cli-mate change. According to the EP, one way of ensuring that is making it clear that all countries – industrialised countries, as well as emerging economies - currently experience limitations in eco-nomic growth. Only with a green economy and a more resource-efficient society will countries be able to safeguard current levels of prosperity or allow a bigger share of its population to enjoy a better standard of living. Especially for the industrialised countries, this challenge is about en-suring their share in global trade and keeping jobs in their respective countries. Fighting climate change has been already recognised as a unique opportunity to actively promote structural change leading to a green economy, even by China and US industry. These countries could prove to be important partners in the negotiations and help to bring about a new climate regime which does not stem from panic mongering, but from the realisation that 'business as usual' is no longer an option and a low-carbon economy is.

Long-term vision: New way of decision-making?

Further to its commitment to helping the negotiations in Durban, the EPP Group is active when it comes to a long-term vision of the UN's working methods. In the resolution adopted by Parlia-ment, the EPP Group introduced a reference to the EU's unique position as a supranational entity which has, in order to ensure more effective working methods, moved away from working with unanimity to qualified majority, which might also represent a way forward in the future.